Electoral History

Hey Thaís, when we analyze the final stretch of the elections, we've covered several elections already, Lula is ahead. Now, it's a narrow difference. Datafolha gives 53% of the valid votes against 47%. It's not a comfortable lead. If there is a movement, it's an open election. We can put it that way. However, if we look at the history, Thaís, of elections in Brazil and of presidential candidates who entered the second round in the lead — candidates who advanced to the second round ahead — that candidate ends up confirming the victory.

Without a doubt, Kennedy. There is not, as you said, in Brazil's history, a single case of a turnaround in a presidential election. There are several cases of turnarounds in gubernatorial elections. In fact, there was also a Quest study that did this survey. So, in gubernatorial elections, there were 11 turnarounds under conditions similar to what we see now in the presidential election, with the second-placed and the first separated by up to five points.