Analyzed statements
É o fim do neoliberalismo com o Consenso de Pequim? | Café com Boulos
410 classified statements · 2 politicians · April 5, 2026 · 27 min
Statements by Guilherme Boulos, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva. 410 excerpts classified by topic and stance. Topics: Monetary Policy, Labor Rights, Fiscal Reform, Commercial Policy.
Speakers
- GBGuilherme Boulos396
Luis Inacio Lula da Silva3
Classified statements
Excerpts classified by topic and stance. This is not the full transcript of the video.
Guilherme Boulos
0:00
About: reorient economic policy to stimulate productive investment and reduce financialization
Man, the Washington Consensus is over, now it's the Beijing Consensus.
Why it was classified this way · 75% confidence affirms a shift from the global consensus to another model, without proposing explicit action.
Guilherme Boulos
0:03
See, China's victory in the productivity war against the United States—leading the technological frontier, managing to take most markets—has a consequence.
Guilherme Boulos
0:13
About: strengthen the role of the State in the economy
The consequence is the return of national projects, the return of the State as a protagonist of the economic model.
Why it was classified this way · 70% confidence says the consequence is the 'retorno do Estado', reporting a change without a direct directive.
Guilherme Boulos
0:20
In other words, the antithesis of what the Washington Consensus was.
Guilherme Boulos
0:23
And so, everyone is watching.
Guilherme Boulos
0:25
The confusion in the world that Trump is causing and the backdrop of this Cold War with China, the competition for natural resources and everything else.
Guilherme Boulos
0:33
Now, this also has a direct impact here, in Brazil, on a national project, on the conditions being set for Brazilian politics itself.
Guilherme Boulos
0:42
And that's why we decided to do this week's Café com Bolos on this subject.
Guilherme Boulos
0:46
So, is there time for a little coffee?
Guilherme Boulos
0:49
To make a good coffee, my dear... Rodrigo, the Beijing Consensus may seem strange, may seem odd.
Guilherme Boulos
0:57
But let's remember what the Washington Consensus was.
Guilherme Boulos
1:00
About: adopt neoliberal policies of economic liberalization
The Washington Consensus was a package of policies that the United States exported to the rest of the world, particularly to the global south, also called neoliberalism.
Why it was classified this way · 78% confidence Defines the Washington Consensus as a neoliberal package, describing the policy.
Guilherme Boulos
1:12
What was the idea?
Guilherme Boulos
1:13
About: grant greater power to markets in economic management
Now is the moment to give all the power to the markets.
Why it was classified this way · 78% confidence Summarizes the central idea of neoliberalism as giving all power to the markets.
Guilherme Boulos
1:16
So there's no more of this State regulating.
Guilherme Boulos
1:20
Deregulate everything.
Guilherme Boulos
1:21
Workers' rights, no.
Guilherme Boulos
1:23
About: defend workers' rights
That attacks economic freedom, that will hinder free investment, rips away all workers' rights, destroys unions, reforms labor laws, broad liberalization.
Why it was classified this way · 90% confidence Criticizes that the measure 'arranca direitos' and 'acaba com o sindicato' - argues the opposite.
Guilherme Boulos
1:34
About: establish capital controls
Oh, come on, the State controlling financial flows, imposing capital controls—get rid of that.
Why it was classified this way · 86% confidence Contrasts with neoliberalism that 'acaba com' capital controls, advocating for controls.
Guilherme Boulos
1:40
Total freedom for financial capital to enter and exit, speculative capital in every country, currency speculation, end the rules that were put
Guilherme Boulos
1:50
some limit on the movement of financial capital and on the conduct of big businessmen exploiting workers.
Guilherme Boulos
1:58
Let's say this is what is called deregulation, that ugly word, it was the first major pillar of neoliberalism.
Guilherme Boulos
2:04
Of course it didn't stop there.
Guilherme Boulos
2:05
About: reduce income concentration
Neoliberalism had a big objective behind it and that was realized—look at the world's data on income concentration.
Why it was classified this way · 72% confidence Cites data on global income concentration as a historical description.
Guilherme Boulos
2:12
For the first time they produced immense billionaires.
Guilherme Boulos
2:14
We are on the verge of having trillionaires in the world.
Guilherme Boulos
2:16
Never has inequality in the United States, the country, let's say, of origin of the formulation of neoliberalism, been as great as it is today.
Guilherme Boulos
2:25
How does it concentrate that wealth?
Guilherme Boulos
2:27
About: make the tax system more progressive
By rolling back what had been built under the welfare state after World War II, which was to levy progressive taxes on income and wealth.
Why it was classified this way · 88% confidence States that neoliberalism 'freou' progressive taxes - implicitly advocates a comeback.
Guilherme Boulos
2:37
That is, those who have more pay more.
Guilherme Boulos
2:39
Cut that out.
Guilherme Boulos
2:40
About: make the tax system more progressive
Abolish progressive taxation.
Why it was classified this way · 70% confidence Declares that progressive taxation 'acaba', describing the effect of neoliberalism.
Guilherme Boulos
2:41
And the rhetoric was: hollow out the State.
Guilherme Boulos
2:44
The State shouldn't intervene in the economy anymore.
Guilherme Boulos
2:46
That's not the State's business, no.
Guilherme Boulos
2:47
Let the market take care of it.
Guilherme Boulos
2:49
About: preserve state-owned companies and public services
State-owned enterprises are finished, privatize, sell everything.
Why it was classified this way · 86% confidence Lists privatizations as a negative effect ('Empresa pública acaba, privatiza'), arguing the opposite.
Guilherme Boulos
2:53
State rules to impose some order.
Guilherme Boulos
2:57
And some limit on market power to...
Guilherme Boulos
2:59
That's antiquated, that's a museum piece.
Guilherme Boulos
3:02
A country undergoing economic modernization doesn't do that kind of thing.
Guilherme Boulos
3:06
This general recipe came to be called the Washington Consensus.
Guilherme Boulos
3:10
Now, where did it start?
Guilherme Boulos
3:12
Why did the United States have the strength to impose an economic model, which even acted against those countries that adopted the Washington Consensus?
Guilherme Boulos
3:23
This is the reality.
Guilherme Boulos
3:25
How did it have the strength to impose that?
Guilherme Boulos
3:27
Because it had won the Cold War and the economic productivity battle against the Soviet Union.
Guilherme Boulos
3:33
In other words, the United States defeated the Soviet Union, which was its main opponent.
Guilherme Boulos
3:38
And at that time it was the world's second-largest economy.
Guilherme Boulos
3:40
When the United States managed to win the economic war, to capture international markets, everyone looked and said, well, that was a victorious model.
Guilherme Boulos
3:49
Now, what's more curious?
Guilherme Boulos
3:51
Not all countries in the world adopted the Washington Consensus.
Guilherme Boulos
3:56
Particularly in Asia.
Guilherme Boulos
3:57
China did not adopt the Washington Consensus.
Guilherme Boulos
4:00
Southeast Asia, Vietnam and other countries of the Asian model, South Korea itself, did not fully adopt the Washington Consensus.
Guilherme Boulos
4:07
And over the last 40 years of the neoliberal era, they were the countries that grew the most in the world, on average.
Guilherme Boulos
4:13
About: strengthen the role of the State in the economy
Professor, a conversation that's been going around, hyped, everyone talks about, is the issue of the minimal state.
Why it was classified this way · 70% confidence Introduces debate about 'Estado mínimo' and prepares a position; explains the term.
Guilherme Boulos
4:17
How do you see that?
Guilherme Boulos
4:19
About: strengthen the role of the State in the economy
I think that's a big nonsense.
Why it was classified this way · 90% confidence Explicitly says 'isso é uma grande bobagem' and asserts 'existe o Estado necessário'.
Guilherme Boulos
4:21
There is no minimal State nor maximal State.
Guilherme Boulos
4:23
There is the necessary State.
Guilherme Boulos
4:24
And China goes from 1980, when it had a GDP smaller than Brazil's, to the second-largest economy in the world, moving toward being the first.
Guilherme Boulos
4:34
It is already the largest by GDP in purchasing power parity.
Guilherme Boulos
4:37
In absolute GDP terms, it is likely to be first by around 2035 at the latest.
Guilherme Boulos
4:41
But why did a strong State only work in China?
Guilherme Boulos
4:43
It wasn't only in China.
Guilherme Boulos
4:45
Look at all the Asian countries, including South Korea, which is used as a model by liberals as an open economy and whatnot.
Guilherme Boulos
4:51
What happened there?
Guilherme Boulos
4:52
They did not strictly follow the Washington Consensus idea, as Latin America followed entirely from the late '80s into the '90s.
Guilherme Boulos
5:00
What was the idea of neoliberalism?
Guilherme Boulos
5:01
It was Menem in Argentina, it was FHC in Brazil, it was Fujimori in Peru.
Guilherme Boulos
5:05
What was the idea?
Guilherme Boulos
5:06
Surrender.
Guilherme Boulos
5:07
Privatize, take away workers' rights, diminish the role of the State and the golden rule: free trade, no barriers for capital, free movement of people.
Guilherme Boulos
5:18
This matters less for us, but take Europe, for example, with immigration, with large migratory flows—this also counts.
Guilherme Boulos
5:24
Now, take South Korea.
Guilherme Boulos
5:26
About: grant tax incentives and local content policies for industry
South Korea had the State investing... heavily in science and technology, in research and development for innovation and for increasing South Korea's productivity.
Why it was classified this way · 72% confidence Describes South Korea's state investment in R&D and subsidies as a practical example.
Guilherme Boulos
5:37
Do you think Samsung, as a global company, just appeared out of nowhere?
Guilherme Boulos
5:41
Some Korean street vendor like Silvio Santos.
Guilherme Boulos
5:44
and suddenly he created Samsung.
Guilherme Boulos
5:47
Come on, there was state support, there were subsidies—subsidies for research, subsidies for the internationalization of companies.
Guilherme Boulos
5:57
So the Washington Consensus said: hand everything over to the market and it'll work.
Guilherme Boulos
6:01
Lie!
Guilherme Boulos
6:04
Look at the data.
Guilherme Boulos
6:06
The economy in the neoliberal era grew much less than in an earlier era with a stronger State, and it concentrated more income.
Guilherme Boulos
6:15
This also meant for the United States itself a certain degree of stagnation, a lower level of growth.
Guilherme Boulos
6:24
Who made the leap in this neoliberal era, in the era of the Washington Consensus?
Guilherme Boulos
6:29
China, which jumped from here to there.
Guilherme Boulos
6:31
And why did it make the leap?
Guilherme Boulos
6:32
Because it didn't adopt the Washington Consensus recipe.
Guilherme Boulos
6:35
About: maintain public control over strategic rare earth mines
China keeps state control over companies in all strategic sectors of the economy.
Why it was classified this way · 78% confidence Reports that China maintains state control in strategic sectors, without direct command.
Guilherme Boulos
6:41
Take energy, steel, the banking sector.
Guilherme Boulos
6:45
China has a closed national financial system.
Guilherme Boulos
6:48
And that's why it became immune to all speculative attacks.
Guilherme Boulos
6:52
The Asian crisis of '98, for example.
Guilherme Boulos
6:54
Why did China become the largest trading partner of more than 80% of the countries in the world?
Guilherme Boulos
6:59
About: maintain a managed exchange rate to stimulate exports
Because it also has a State... that exerts a degree of exchange-rate control, that keeps the renminbi, the yuan, undervalued, stimulating exports.
Why it was classified this way · 75% confidence Explains China's exchange-rate policy (devalued yuan) as a stimulus to exports.
Guilherme Boulos
7:08
Because it has a State that fosters large state-owned companies to become international players and to have a higher degree of competitiveness.
Guilherme Boulos
7:17
In other words, because it practices economic planning.
Guilherme Boulos
7:19
We are now on China's 15th five-year plan.
Guilherme Boulos
7:22
Since the Revolution of 1949... led by Mao Zedong, then you have a leap, about 20 years later, with Deng Xiaoping's line, which was a certain degree of opening to the market, a coexistence between state economic planning and the market, using market forces for national development and for a popular project in China.
Guilherme Boulos
7:44
About: implement public policies to encourage industry, reduce costs, and retain talent
As a result, China takes off, adopting the opposite of what those guys were preaching, man.
Why it was classified this way · 74% confidence States that China grew by adopting a model opposite to the Washington Consensus, describing the outcome.
Guilherme Boulos
7:49
It managed to gain hegemony, to make a global economic leap.
Guilherme Boulos
7:54
To win the productivity war against the United States, because a war for market share is a war of productivity, right?
Guilherme Boulos
7:59
I'll give you an example.
Guilherme Boulos
8:00
People at Vale, which is one of the world's largest iron ore companies, were asked, why don't you do the refining, why don't you do the process of turning iron ore into steel here in Brazil?
Guilherme Boulos
8:14
And they go, they export the iron ore to China and we buy Chinese steel.
Guilherme Boulos
8:18
And what they said was the following: the problem is that if I do the transformation of iron ore into steel here in Brazil, my steel will be less competitive, more expensive than the steel I buy from China.
Guilherme Boulos
8:31
Why?
Guilherme Boulos
8:32
Well, first because when China does it at scale, on a gigantic scale, scale makes it cheaper.
Guilherme Boulos
8:37
Second because there's the State, a role of the State supporting the entire strategic chain of those sectors.
Guilherme Boulos
8:45
So China comes in, the United States also produces steel.
Guilherme Boulos
8:49
The U.S. steel industry, famous, extremely powerful and all that, is decadent.
Guilherme Boulos
8:54
Because today China produces steel and exports that steel to the world at a lower price, more competitively, with higher productivity than the steel produced domestically by that very country.
Guilherme Boulos
9:06
And then it kept winning the markets.
Guilherme Boulos
9:09
By being more productive in the same way that the United States were more productive than the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s.
Guilherme Boulos
9:15
And it kept taking the markets.
Guilherme Boulos
9:16
In the American Way of Life.
Guilherme Boulos
9:18
That was the symbol of the United States' victory in the productivity war against the Soviet Union.
Guilherme Boulos
9:24
Which, to some extent, was that economic victory that precipitated the end of the Soviet Union.
Guilherme Boulos
9:29
Now, 40, 50 years later, we are living this process led by China.
Guilherme Boulos
9:40
Who is leading today the frontier of artificial intelligence, my friend?
Guilherme Boulos
9:43
The largest research efforts, the main published papers, the major patents in the world.
Guilherme Boulos
9:48
In AI, in robotics, in the digital economy.
Desconhecido
9:50
Isn't it the United States?
Guilherme Boulos
9:51
No!
Guilherme Boulos
9:52
It's China!
Guilherme Boulos
9:53
Put it here, Patrick.
Guilherme Boulos
9:54
You know that little thing here, the news?
Guilherme Boulos
9:56
It's China.
Guilherme Boulos
9:56
Otherwise people won't believe it.
Guilherme Boulos
9:58
It's China, you see?
Guilherme Boulos
9:59
In other words, those guys managed to be more dynamic and have a strong State.
Guilherme Boulos
10:04
With a national project.
Guilherme Boulos
10:06
With a closed financial system, with public banks.
Guilherme Boulos
10:08
With state-owned enterprises being the largest conglomerates in the Chinese economy.
Guilherme Boulos
10:12
Without the Washington Consensus.
Guilherme Boulos
10:14
So?
Guilherme Boulos
10:15
About: reorient economic policy to stimulate productive investment and reduce financialization
Now it starts to make sense for us to talk about the Beijing Consensus.
Why it was classified this way · 75% confidence Presents and labels the idea of 'consenso de Pequim' as a return of the state.
Guilherme Boulos
10:17
Look at the irony of history.
Guilherme Boulos
10:18
The greatest victor of the neoliberal era.
Guilherme Boulos
10:21
For not having adopted the Washington Consensus and the precepts of neoliberalism.
Guilherme Boulos
10:24
But it knew how to make use of the free trade that neoliberalism advocated.
Guilherme Boulos
10:29
And it became the world's factory.
Guilherme Boulos
10:30
Today, China is the largest trading partner
Guilherme Boulos
10:32
of the majority of the countries in the world.
Guilherme Boulos
10:34
China internationalized itself.
Guilherme Boulos
10:36
The new Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative, China created a digital payment method more efficient than SWIFT.
Guilherme Boulos
10:44
SWIFT is the United States' dollar payment mechanism, which is used for all international trade transactions.
Guilherme Boulos
10:50
So much so that a country like Iran was removed from SWIFT, it becomes almost a pariah in international trade.
Guilherme Boulos
10:55
Russia was excluded from SWIFT after the attack on Ukraine.
Guilherme Boulos
10:58
That is, China created a digital payments system cheaper, faster and more efficient than SWIFT.
Guilherme Boulos
11:05
For transactions in digital renminbi.
Desconhecido
11:07
So it's no longer just a partnership of cheap goods, piracy, junk?
Guilherme Boulos
11:11
Come on, Rodrigo, you're about 30 years behind, huh, man?
Guilherme Boulos
11:14
For heaven's sake.
Guilherme Boulos
11:14
Cheap junk was still the norm until the '90s.
Guilherme Boulos
11:16
How did China do it?
Guilherme Boulos
11:17
First, by attracting international companies there, it saw what the technology was and tried to imitate it.
Guilherme Boulos
11:22
So much so that people said 'the Chinese' almost became synonymous with 'paraguaio', which we use to mean a counterfeit, an imitation.
Guilherme Boulos
11:28
China's first attempt to appropriate a technology that was more dynamic and more efficient was to imitate it.
Guilherme Boulos
11:34
But then, for more than 20 years now it has developed its own technology.
Guilherme Boulos
11:39
And today it's more advanced than American and European technology.
Guilherme Boulos
11:43
Because if you look at the percentage of GDP that China dedicates to science, innovation and technology and the percentage of GDP that the United States dedicates,
Guilherme Boulos
11:51
China's is considerably larger.
Guilherme Boulos
11:52
And with planning.
Guilherme Boulos
11:54
Do you know one of the goals of the 2026-2030 five-year plan in China?
Guilherme Boulos
11:58
One of the goals is to assume complete hegemony of the digital economy, reach 6G and take leadership in all areas of AI and biotechnology,
Guilherme Boulos
12:09
which they have not yet assumed.
Guilherme Boulos
12:10
Research into new energies is looking at thorium, replacing uranium.
Guilherme Boulos
12:15
China is far ahead in green technology, sustainability, energy transition, solar and wind power generation.
Guilherme Boulos
12:23
China leads in everything on that front.
Guilherme Boulos
12:25
And this may sound, with me speaking like this, like 'man, you're in love with China'.
Guilherme Boulos
12:29
It's not that.
Guilherme Boulos
12:30
But why do we lay out this whole story?
Guilherme Boulos
12:32
What is this Beijing Consensus?
Guilherme Boulos
12:34
We've already seen what the Washington Consensus was.
Guilherme Boulos
12:36
What is the Beijing Consensus?
Guilherme Boulos
12:37
About: reorient economic policy to stimulate productive investment and reduce financialization
It's the return of the State and of national projects.
Why it was classified this way · 76% confidence Defines 'consenso de Pequim' explicitly as a return of the state and national projects.
Desconhecido
12:40
But for there to be a consensus, it's not enough to be isolated.
Desconhecido
12:43
Is Chinese success sufficient for other countries to adopt this consensus?
Guilherme Boulos
12:48
Hey, pale fellow, how are you isolated being a trading partner of more than 80% of the countries in the world?
Guilherme Boulos
12:53
How are you isolated being the largest infrastructure investor in Asia and Africa?
Guilherme Boulos
12:57
How are you isolated being the biggest trading partner of the South American countries that the United States sees as its backyard?
Guilherme Boulos
13:04
Seems like the game's turned, doesn't it?
Guilherme Boulos
13:08
There it is, it's the model that won the productive war, the technological war.
Guilherme Boulos
13:12
It's the model on the rise.
Guilherme Boulos
13:14
The model in decline is the neoliberalism of the Washington Consensus, which everyone who adopted got screwed.
Guilherme Boulos
13:19
And everyone who questioned it... grew.
Guilherme Boulos
13:21
How can that be?
Guilherme Boulos
13:22
Now, your question is valid.
Guilherme Boulos
13:24
Is the United States being influenced by the Beijing Consensus?
Guilherme Boulos
13:27
Now, I'm going to ask you a question.
Guilherme Boulos
13:29
Rodrigo, I'm going to ask you a question.
Guilherme Boulos
13:30
Which country in the world has had the largest number of re-nationalizations of companies in the last 10 to 15 years?
Desconhecido
13:38
I'm going to say the United States.
Guilherme Boulos
13:41
Look at that.
Luis Inacio Lula da Silva
13:42
The bastard is a genius.
Guilherme Boulos
13:44
So, is the Beijing Consensus in decline?
Guilherme Boulos
13:46
The country that propagated neoliberalism?
Guilherme Boulos
13:48
Get rid of the State.
Guilherme Boulos
13:49
Ronald Reagan saying that?
Desconhecido
13:52
Government is not the solution to our problem.
Desconhecido
13:55
Government is the problem.
Guilherme Boulos
13:57
About: adopt measures to stabilize the financial market
This country is now re-nationalizing everything left and right.
Why it was classified this way · 72% confidence States that the US 'estão reestatizando' and is adopting capital controls, noting a shift.
Guilherme Boulos
14:00
The United States is imposing capital controls.
Guilherme Boulos
14:04
A forbidden word in the neoliberal era.
Guilherme Boulos
14:08
On Wall Street, anyone who mentions capital controls, everyone stays away from them.
Guilherme Boulos
14:11
We're talking here about their project to desperately try to maintain economic hegemony.
Guilherme Boulos
14:16
One example.
Guilherme Boulos
14:17
There's something called IAIE.
Guilherme Boulos
14:20
The acronym is U.S.-based.
Guilherme Boulos
14:21
but they are mechanisms for monitoring and screening capital.
Guilherme Boulos
14:26
They began to adopt—and it's not just the United States, the European Union as well—the idea that national security
Guilherme Boulos
14:32
now includes economic security.
Guilherme Boulos
14:42
Everyone knows the concept of national security, strict measures to ensure there is no infiltration by terrorists and such.
Guilherme Boulos
14:48
National security.
Guilherme Boulos
14:49
Alright.
Guilherme Boulos
14:49
Now, the doctrine adopted by the United States, by the main capitalist countries, is that economic security is part of national security.
Guilherme Boulos
14:57
And what is economic security?
Guilherme Boulos
14:59
It's a country having sovereignty and control over its strategic sectors.
Guilherme Boulos
15:05
About: adopt economic security mechanisms for strategic sectors
It was through these monitoring and screening mechanisms, for example, that the Trump administration waged war on TikTok, saying that TikTok could only operate in the United States if it were taken over and controlled by a U.S. company.
Why it was classified this way · 80% confidence Explains the use of 'segurança econômica' and cites the TikTok war as an example.
Guilherme Boulos
15:34
But it's not just TikTok.
Guilherme Boulos
15:35
It's in energy, it's in the financial sector, it's in the acquisition of land.
Guilherme Boulos
15:39
And want to hear another?
Guilherme Boulos
15:40
What could be more antiquated than talking about a national industrial project?
Guilherme Boulos
15:45
National productive base.
Guilherme Boulos
15:47
Folks, what is this?
Guilherme Boulos
15:49
Mr. Biden signed in 2022 a project initiated by Trump in his first term.
Guilherme Boulos
15:55
Science and Shipping.
Guilherme Boulos
15:57
I don't know how to speak English, it probably came out a bit like that, but what is this?
Guilherme Boulos
16:00
About: invest in the national semiconductor production chain
It's a billion-dollar investment by the United States to build a productive chain of microchips, microprocessors, semiconductors in the United States itself, on United States territory.
Why it was classified this way · 75% confidence Reports a billion-dollar US investment to produce chips in the country.
Guilherme Boulos
16:12
And why has the rare earths issue been directed at Brazil now?
Guilherme Boulos
16:15
Flávio Bolsonaro there swaying, he looked like one of those gas station inflatable figures, him speaking, right?
Guilherme Boulos
16:20
He was so nervous.
Guilherme Boulos
16:21
Why did he go and say that?
Guilherme Boulos
16:31
About: develop a national production and processing chain for rare earths
Because rare earths are the basis for producing the microchips that the United States is now creating through its national semiconductor chain, with its own industrial policy.
Why it was classified this way · 88% confidence Explicitly advocates a national supply chain and 'política industrial própria'.
Guilherme Boulos
16:39
About: strengthen the State
My friend, what is this if not the return of the State?
Why it was classified this way · 86% confidence calls it a 'retorno do Estado' as a positive characteristic.
Guilherme Boulos
16:42
About: strengthen the State
What is this if not the State intervening in the economy?
Why it was classified this way · 82% confidence asks rhetorically 'o que é isso se não o Estado intervindo' and praises intervention.
Guilherme Boulos
16:44
We are talking about the return of the much-maligned national project.
Guilherme Boulos
16:48
This is the Beijing Consensus.
Guilherme Boulos
16:49
This is happening in the United States today.
Guilherme Boulos
16:51
This is happening in Europe today.
Guilherme Boulos
17:01
It's just that history, man, is written in crooked lines.
Guilherme Boulos
17:04
The fact that you have a new emerging global pattern of productivity, of the return of the national project, of the recovery of a stronger role for the State in the economy, doesn't mean that all the countries in the world will do it at the same time.
Guilherme Boulos
17:19
This won't be without counter-trends.
Guilherme Boulos
17:21
That's what history is made of.
Guilherme Boulos
17:22
The Washington Consensus itself — Chile did it first with Pinochet.
Guilherme Boulos
17:25
In Brazil, it took longer to happen and happened at a slower pace.
Guilherme Boulos
17:30
So much so that Brazil managed to preserve things that other countries did not preserve.
Guilherme Boulos
17:33
In Latin America, as a rule, it was a total sell-off.
Guilherme Boulos
17:37
About: preserve Petrobras as a state-owned company
Brazil preserved Petrobras.
Why it was classified this way · 70% confidence reports that Brazil 'preservou a Petrobras' without proposing new action.
Guilherme Boulos
17:38
About: re-nationalize state-owned companies
Eletrobras was handed over during the Bolsonaro government, 30 years after the start of neoliberalism.
Why it was classified this way · 90% confidence criticizes the handing over of Eletrobras and implies support for reversal (re-nationalization).
Guilherme Boulos
17:44
About: preserve and strengthen public banks such as BNDES, Caixa and Banco do Brasil
Brazil preserved the public banks, the BNDES, the Development Bank.
Why it was classified this way · 70% confidence lists the historical preservation of public banks as a stated fact.
Guilherme Boulos
17:48
One of the largest in the world.
Guilherme Boulos
17:49
It preserved Caixa, it preserved Banco do Brasil.
Guilherme Boulos
17:52
But what am I trying to say with this?
Guilherme Boulos
17:53
With this new Beijing Consensus being established, a space opened up for the resumption of national projects.
Guilherme Boulos
18:00
And this has to do directly with us.
Guilherme Boulos
18:02
Because, look, trying to implement a national project, a sovereign project, a local industrial park project, completely against the international current and trend, is not impossible.
Guilherme Boulos
18:14
Countries have managed it.
Guilherme Boulos
18:15
China carried out a revolution, right?
Guilherme Boulos
18:17
A popular, socialist revolution in 1949, to get to where it has gotten.
Guilherme Boulos
18:22
Now it has much better conditions to do more, so to speak, and to be accepted within international standards.
Guilherme Boulos
18:28
And the resumption of national projects created a space.
Guilherme Boulos
18:32
For countries to do that.
Guilherme Boulos
18:33
For us, this is the great... We keep arguing, right?
Guilherme Boulos
18:36
The sex of the angels, Big Brother Brasil, the little things of petty politics, the small everyday stuff.
Guilherme Boulos
18:43
And we're failing to see the forest.
Guilherme Boulos
18:45
A great historical opportunity for Brazil and Latin America.
Guilherme Boulos
18:50
The resumption of national projects, the victory of the Beijing Consensus over the Washington Consensus, brings an opportunity for Brazil to develop a project.
Guilherme Boulos
19:02
its own national project.
Guilherme Boulos
19:03
What is a national project?
Guilherme Boulos
19:04
It sounds abstract, right?
Guilherme Boulos
19:06
Rare earths.
Guilherme Boulos
19:06
What is the difference between a national project and a neocolonial project, which was the standard in the neoliberal era?
Guilherme Boulos
19:13
What does neoliberalism do?
Guilherme Boulos
19:14
Oh, a country has a resource?
Guilherme Boulos
19:16
Privatize it.
Guilherme Boulos
19:17
Does the State have to own rare earths?
Guilherme Boulos
19:19
That's it.
Guilherme Boulos
19:19
Put in a very good American company to carry out mineral exploration and it takes those minerals to the United States and they build the productive chain there for processing and refining.
Guilherme Boulos
19:31
and it's all fine, the added value is theirs.
Guilherme Boulos
19:33
That's what neoliberalism would say.
Guilherme Boulos
19:35
What does a sovereign development project say?
Guilherme Boulos
19:38
About: implement a regulatory framework for exploration and processing of rare earths in Brazil
We're going to have a regulatory framework here for how rare earths will be extracted in Brazil; it's not a clearance sale, that idiot Caiado saying "I'm going to sell the Goiás area."
Why it was classified this way · 92% confidence proposes to 'ter um marco de regulação' for national exploration and refining.
Guilherme Boulos
19:47
He doesn't have the power to do that.
Guilherme Boulos
19:48
That imbecile Zema saying the same thing, because Minas has one of the largest concentrations of rare earths among Brazilian reserves and so on.
Guilherme Boulos
19:55
About: develop a rare earths processing chain in Brazil
It's to say the following, look. The extraction of rare earths will be here, it will be sustainable, it will follow a national project and the processing and refining will be here, my dear.
Why it was classified this way · 92% confidence declares that 'processamento e o refino vai ser aqui' in the country.
Guilherme Boulos
20:03
And do we have the capacity for that?
Guilherme Boulos
20:05
Of course we do.
Guilherme Boulos
20:06
We have the capacity to develop this.
Guilherme Boulos
20:07
Why wouldn't we?
Guilherme Boulos
20:08
Brazil created CSN, which carried out refining and processing of iron ore and produced steel almost 100 years ago.
Guilherme Boulos
20:16
About: develop a rare earths processing chain in Brazil
Why today, with available technologies, wouldn't Brazil have the capacity to create a processing and refining chain for rare earths and critical minerals?
Why it was classified this way · 85% confidence says that Brazil has the technological capability to build the chain.
Guilherme Boulos
20:24
To add value here, to generate jobs here, to enrich the country, and not an American fund that will manage this?
Guilherme Boulos
20:32
That's an example.
Guilherme Boulos
20:33
About: re-nationalize state-owned companies
A project of this nature even involves re-nationalizations.
Why it was classified this way · 93% confidence explicitly states that the project 'passa... por reestatizações'.
Guilherme Boulos
20:36
This thing about BR Distribuidora, my dear.
Guilherme Boulos
20:38
We are living this right now.
Guilherme Boulos
20:40
Anyone at the gas station can see it.
Guilherme Boulos
20:42
Iran, with huge oil reserves, closes the Strait of Hormuz after a brutal and unilateral attack by Trump, then the price of oil shoots up a lot.
Guilherme Boulos
20:50
It's expected that there will be a rise.
Guilherme Boulos
20:52
However, Brazil was one of the first countries to have a firm reaction.
Guilherme Boulos
20:56
About: reduce taxes levied on fuels
It zeroed the federal tax on gasoline and diesel fuel, it zeroed PIS/COFINS.
Why it was classified this way · 75% confidence reports that the country 'zerou o imposto federal' as a measure taken.
Guilherme Boulos
21:01
So that, well, if there were an increase here, we reduce the tax here, balance the scales, right?
Guilherme Boulos
21:06
What the distributors are — all private; there are three large distributors in Brazil, okay?
Guilherme Boulos
21:10
Vibra, which was the one that bought BR Distribuidora, a fund with capital in the United States, Raizen and Ipiranga.
Guilherme Boulos
21:16
All three are private.
Guilherme Boulos
21:17
You pick it up at the refinery, let's say, you're paying the same price, but they come and raise the price by speculation and increase their margin by taking advantage of a situation of panic and an international crisis.
Guilherme Boulos
21:28
About: reclaim state control of fuel distribution to contain prices
And you don't have a distributor like BR Distribuidora used to be until four years ago to be able, in some way, to act to contain prices, even for cooking gas.
Why it was classified this way · 87% confidence argues that the absence of BR prevented price containment, advocating a return to state control.
Guilherme Boulos
21:38
That's why they had to create the people's gas.
Guilherme Boulos
21:39
Do you understand?
Guilherme Boulos
21:40
About: reclaim state control of strategic sectors of the economy
So you have to reclaim today, even in the name of national security, in an unstable international context, the possibility of retaking strategic control over national wealth, strategic sectors of the economy.
Why it was classified this way · 90% confidence declares the need to 'retomar o controle estratégico' for national security.
Guilherme Boulos
21:53
What controls energy generation and energy distribution in Brazil today?
Guilherme Boulos
21:57
About: reclaim state control of power generation and distribution
After the privatization of Eletrobras, they are generally foreign companies, many Chinese.
Why it was classified this way · 90% confidence criticizes the privatization of Eletrobras and foreign presence in the energy sector.
Desconhecido
22:01
Wouldn't that movement be an international scandal?
Guilherme Boulos
22:04
The United States is doing it.
Guilherme Boulos
22:06
In their way.
Desconhecido
22:06
But they have the power to make us...
Guilherme Boulos
22:08
No, but it's not just them, man.
Guilherme Boulos
22:10
Now, you've hit on a point.
Guilherme Boulos
22:11
This isn't, you know, a piece of cake.
Guilherme Boulos
22:14
This is a political struggle.
Guilherme Boulos
22:15
This will face resistance.
Guilherme Boulos
22:16
It's already facing it.
Guilherme Boulos
22:18
It's enough to discover the rare earths.
Guilherme Boulos
22:19
Brazil being the world's second-largest reserve.
Guilherme Boulos
22:21
Why did Flavio Bolsonaro go there to say Brazil has the rare earths, we can solve the problem of the U.S. military industry, of the U.S. energy transition, of the U.S. digital economy?
Guilherme Boulos
22:33
He went there to offer them in exchange for political support for him.
Guilherme Boulos
22:37
A campaign.
Guilherme Boulos
22:38
The war has already begun.
Desconhecido
22:39
So Trump doesn't support the Bolsonaros just because he likes them.
Guilherme Boulos
22:42
Oh, 'because he likes them.'
Guilherme Boulos
22:44
That sounded like a sertanejo love song about unrequited love.
Guilherme Boulos
22:48
I don't know if you remember that line from Bolsonaro saying, 'I love Trump.'
Guilherme Boulos
22:50
'I'm not his friend.'
Guilherme Boulos
22:52
'I'm in love with him.'
Guilherme Boulos
22:54
Trump always knew that.
Guilherme Boulos
22:55
He treated me like a brother.
Guilherme Boulos
23:02
It's embarrassing, it's cringeworthy, right, man?
Guilherme Boulos
23:04
Lula once said, and this line became famous: he said, 'American, think first of Americans; second, think of Americans; third, think of Americans; fifth, and if you have time left, think of Americans.'
Luis Inacio Lula da Silva
23:17
And the Brazilian lackeys keep thinking that the Americans are going to do something for us.
Luis Inacio Lula da Silva
23:22
Who has to do things for us is us.
Desconhecido
23:24
Now, Flavio Bolsonaro is a continuation of the Washington consensus.
Guilherme Boulos
23:28
Flavio Bolsonaro is quite simply a traitor to the homeland.
Guilherme Boulos
23:33
He is the continuation of Carlos Lacerda and the uniformed men who carried out the 1964 coup.
Guilherme Boulos
23:38
He represents the project of surrendering Brazil to the United States.
Guilherme Boulos
23:43
He is at the service of the North American interest of a new Monroe doctrine to take Latin America as their backyard, formally.
Guilherme Boulos
23:52
That's what's at stake.
Guilherme Boulos
23:53
Since Trump can't do to Lula what he did to Maduro... because of Brazil's role in the world, he will push a candidate who will try to remove him and preserve his projects.
Guilherme Boulos
24:03
That's that.
Guilherme Boulos
24:04
My idea, when I proposed this coffee with cakes for us to talk about this, is kind of... Let's put the idea out there.
Guilherme Boulos
24:09
This here is the start of a debate.
Guilherme Boulos
24:11
There isn't one certain thing here.
Guilherme Boulos
24:12
We're talking about hypotheses, right?
Guilherme Boulos
24:13
History is dynamic.
Guilherme Boulos
24:15
Now, let's think about one thing.
Guilherme Boulos
24:16
There's a new global moment.
Guilherme Boulos
24:18
Even the little old woman from Taubaté knows that.
Guilherme Boulos
24:20
There is a geopolitical war, for now a cold one, established between the United States and China.
Guilherme Boulos
24:24
Trump himself is already striking a blow against neoliberalism.
Guilherme Boulos
24:27
What does he say?
Guilherme Boulos
24:28
What is it?
Guilherme Boulos
24:29
About: impose tariffs on Brazilian imports
Free trade is a load of crap, I'm going to slap tariffs on everyone.
Why it was classified this way · 75% confidence quotes Trump's statement on tariffs; reports a change without explicitly supporting it.
Guilherme Boulos
24:31
Free movement of people is bullshit, I'm going to put up a wall on the Mexico border and I'll deport immigrants with ICE.
Guilherme Boulos
24:37
Trump adopts a line of protectionism.
Guilherme Boulos
24:40
He's already starting to reverse things, right?
Guilherme Boulos
24:42
Then he goes there, seizes Maduro to take the oil.
Guilherme Boulos
24:45
Kills the Ayatollah to take the oil.
Guilherme Boulos
24:47
I don't think anyone in their conscience will say, 'No, the world is calm.'
Guilherme Boulos
24:51
Calm waters?
Guilherme Boulos
24:52
No, right?
Guilherme Boulos
24:52
Something is happening; there's a global turning point occurring.
Guilherme Boulos
24:55
We can look at this turning point only from the surface, from the immediate political disputes.
Guilherme Boulos
25:01
We can look at this turning point by the historical significance it may have.
Guilherme Boulos
25:04
And if we look at the economic and geopolitical factors, the imperialist struggle for hegemony behind this, it's clear to see space for the return of national projects, a return of the United States' action, man.
Guilherme Boulos
25:18
What's a tariff?
Guilherme Boulos
25:19
What's protectionism?
Guilherme Boulos
25:22
About: impose tariffs on Brazilian imports
It's the presence of the State.
Why it was classified this way · 86% confidence defines 'tarifa/protecionismo' as the presence of the State and the antithesis to laissez-faire.
Guilherme Boulos
25:24
It's the antithesis of 'let the market do everything.'
Guilherme Boulos
25:26
No!
Guilherme Boulos
25:26
100% tariff, 200% tariff.
Guilherme Boulos
25:29
Do you understand?
Guilherme Boulos
25:30
There's an underground change underway.
Guilherme Boulos
25:32
And this change points to China closing in on the United States.
Guilherme Boulos
25:37
Which is what's happening.
Guilherme Boulos
25:38
It's on their heels there, ready to surpass the United States.
Guilherme Boulos
25:41
About: strengthen public banks, state companies and state economic planning
And it managed to do this by doing the opposite of what the United States prescribed in the Washington Consensus.
Why it was classified this way · 90% confidence praises the Chinese model of 'muito Estado' and recommends a similar direction.
Guilherme Boulos
25:46
A lot of State, public banks, state-owned companies, economic planning, steering market forces through state planning and a national and popular project.
Guilherme Boulos
25:56
Oh, it worked.
Guilherme Boulos
25:58
As a result, several countries around the world
Guilherme Boulos
26:00
that led the Washington Consensus, that produced neoliberalism, starting with the United States, are beginning to adopt the Chinese model because it was victorious in productivity.
Guilherme Boulos
26:09
This opens a huge opportunity for Brazil.
Guilherme Boulos
26:11
This yields a lot of debate.
Guilherme Boulos
26:13
It generates debate about what a Lula 4 could be; along these lines, I believe we will defeat those neocolonial forces.
Guilherme Boulos
26:18
What could it be in this scenario?
Guilherme Boulos
26:20
It's no longer the same as before.
Guilherme Boulos
26:21
It can't even be that.
Guilherme Boulos
26:22
Now... Look, this Coffee with Cakes will continue, because it will have, let's say, a second season, a third season, because, like, this is a debate we need to start having in the country.
Guilherme Boulos
26:32
About this sovereign project in new times.
Guilherme Boulos
26:34
I'm not simply talking about the importance of a national project.
Guilherme Boulos
26:37
This has been done forever, since Céus Furtado.
Guilherme Boulos
26:40
Bressa Pereira has for 70 years only talked about this.
Guilherme Boulos
26:43
I'm speaking in today's terms.
Guilherme Boulos
26:45
In the Cold War, United States, China.
Guilherme Boulos
26:47
With the victory of the Beijing consensus, whoa, we have real conditions to consider, in the short term, building the feasibility of a national project.
Guilherme Boulos
26:56
We'll still talk a lot about this here, because there's plenty more to come.
Guilherme Boulos
27:00
About: preserve national sovereignty and protect decisions regarding natural resources
Thinking about the Brazilian election, thinking about Brazil next year, and thinking about our sovereignty against this foreign attempt by Trump, allied with the traitors to the homeland here, to destroy the country.
Why it was classified this way · 82% confidence calls to defend sovereignty against attempts at foreign influence.
Guilherme Boulos
27:12
That was another Café com Bolos.
AI classification from the transcript of a public video. See the Methodology