Analyzed statement

What Desconhecido said about convert debate performance into votes in polls

DE

Desconhecido

October 17, 2022

Neutral

About: convert debate performance into votes in polls

Desconhecido: Not really.

Desconhecido: having as big an effect as we imagine, right?

That's right. So, I think that's it. Bolsonaro may have performed better than former president Lula, but I think he'll have a lot of difficulty converting that performance into votes.

Desconhecido · 159:49

Desconhecido: Hey Thaís, when we analyze the final stretch of the elections, we've covered several elections already, Lula is ahead. Now, it's a narrow difference. Datafolha gives 53% of the valid votes against 47%. It's not a comfortable lead. If there is a movement, it's an open election. We can put it that way. However, if we look at the history, Thaís, of elections in Brazil and of presidential candidates who entered the second round in the lead — candidates who advanced to the second round ahead — that candidate ends up confirming the victory.

Desconhecido: Look, if you take Fernando Henrique in '98, when he was re-elected in the first round, he led the polls with ease, so much so that he won in the first phase. Lula was re-elected in 2006.

Why it was classified this way · 75% confidence

Says Bolsonaro may have performed better, but will have difficulty converting that into votes.

Excerpt from a public video, transcribed and classified by AI. See the Methodology