Analyzed statement

What Desconhecido said about consider presidential election turnarounds unlikely

DE

Desconhecido

October 17, 2022

Neutral

About: consider presidential election turnarounds unlikely

Desconhecido: He was ahead in the polls. Dilma was re-elected in 2014 and was ahead in the polls.

Desconhecido: What does this signal to us? Is it that Lula is the favorite and the trend is for Lula to win, or is this still open?

Without a doubt, Kennedy. There is not, as you said, in Brazil's history, a single case of a turnaround in a presidential election. There are several cases of turnarounds in gubernatorial elections. In fact, there was also a Quest study that did this survey. So, in gubernatorial elections, there were 11 turnarounds under conditions similar to what we see now in the presidential election, with the second-placed and the first separated by up to five points.

Desconhecido · 160:56

Desconhecido: But in only one.

Desconhecido: of those gubernatorial elections in which there was a turnaround, they had all the conditions, that is, the difference was about five points more or less as it is now, and the first-placed candidate in the first round had 48% of the votes, that is, quite a lot, almost half. So, in the gubernatorial election, only in a single case did this happen, which was in Minas Gerais. So, it's quite difficult, answering your question,

Why it was classified this way · 78% confidence

States there are no cases of comebacks in presidential elections; a historical assessment.

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